Progress through nested phases #
A finite Markov chain that, from every state of Aᵢ, stays in Aᵢ with
probability ≥ 1 - ε and moves into the smaller set Aᵢ₊₁ with
probability ≥ 1 - ν, reaches the innermost set A_T within ℓ T steps
except with probability T (ℓ ε + ν^ℓ). This is Lemma A.4 of Becchetti,
Clementi, Natale, Pasquale, Silvestri, Trevisan, Simple dynamics for
plurality consensus (SPAA 2014); its proof is omitted there.
The proof works phase by phase with the survival observable outside B
(the indicator of having left B): within ℓ steps the chain leaves Aᵢ
with probability at most ℓ ε and fails to jump in each of the ℓ steps
with probability at most ν^ℓ. The hypothesis ε ≤ ν of the paper is not
needed.
Staying: if from every state of B the chain stays in B with
probability ≥ 1 - ε, then it has left B after ℓ steps with probability
at most ℓ ε.
One phase: from A, which is left with probability ≤ ε per step,
the chain is outside B ⊆ A after ℓ steps with probability at most
ℓ ε + ν^ℓ, if every step from A enters B with probability ≥ 1 - ν and
B itself is left with probability ≤ ε per step.
Lemma A.4 (nested phases). Let A₁ ⊇ A₂ ⊇ ⋯ ⊇ A_T be such that
from every state of Aᵢ the chain stays in Aᵢ with probability
≥ 1 - ε, and for i < T moves into Aᵢ₊₁ with probability ≥ 1 - ν.
Then from any state of A₁, after ℓ T steps the chain lies in A_T with
probability at least 1 - T (ℓ ε + ν^ℓ).